China's CO2 emissions have been 'flat or falling' for 21 months, with a 1% decrease in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a 0.3% decline for the year. This trend, starting in March 2024, is supported by a 7% drop in CO2 from cement, a 3% fall in transportation, 1.5% in power, and 7% in building materials. The chemicals industry, however, saw a 12% increase in emissions. Solar power output rose by 43%, wind by 14%, and nuclear by 8%, helping reduce coal generation by 1.9%. Energy storage capacity grew by 75 gigawatts, surpassing peak demand growth. This indicates that clean-power output and storage capacity growth outpaced electricity demand increases. China's carbon intensity fell by 4.7% in 2025 and 12% from 2020-25, falling short of the 18% target set by the 14th five-year plan. To meet Paris Agreement commitments, China needs to cut carbon intensity by 23% over the next five years. The 15th five-year plan will determine if emissions have peaked or will rise again, with a focus on the chemical industry's emissions growth, which could impact future emission trends. The outlook for China's emissions is uncertain, with the 2030 energy targets and the 15th five-year plan's carbon intensity target under scrutiny.
