The American Film Market (AFM) is back in Los Angeles, and the excitement is palpable among independent distributors. But amidst the buzz, a pressing concern looms: is the domestic theatrical business becoming an increasingly elusive prospect?
A Warm Welcome Back to L.A.
The AFM's return to the City of Angels, hosted at the Fairmont Century Plaza, has been met with enthusiasm by many in the industry. The new venue, conveniently located near agencies and Hollywood, offers a more sophisticated business environment compared to previous years in Santa Monica or the Las Vegas edition, which was considered a misstep by some.
"It's a much-needed upgrade," one seller remarked, "The venue is excellent, and the proximity to industry hubs makes it even more appealing." Another added, "The previous locations had their charm, but this feels like a step up in terms of professionalism."
But Here's Where it Gets Controversial...
While the new venue has its fans, not everyone is convinced. One buyer expressed frustration, "AFM has its issues. With key companies like FilmNation, Black Bear, and A24 not at the venue, we're spending more time traveling than meeting. The rooms are pricey and small, which doesn't help."
A Tale of Two Markets
The exhibitor numbers this year stand at 285, a decrease from the pre-pandemic levels of 375-450. Interestingly, the virtual edition in 2020 saw a record high of 562 exhibitors. This year's numbers are consistent with the previous edition in Las Vegas.
Despite the drop in exhibitors, the consensus is that in-person meetings are invaluable. The organizers, IFTA, anticipate extending the venue contract beyond 2026. However, the market will face stiff competition from the revamped Toronto market next year, which could complicate matters.
Navigating Travel Disruptions
AFM organizers were initially concerned about potential disruptions to U.S. air travel affecting the event. Fortunately, the impact has been minimal, with no reported cancellations. One seller confirmed, "We had a full schedule on the first day, and it's been smooth sailing since."
High-Profile Projects and Industry Buzz
Mel Gibson's 'The Resurrection of Christ' is the market's headline grabber, with a reported budget of $200 million for its two parts. Lionsgate's buyers' presentation was shrouded in secrecy due to NDAs, but one buyer hinted at its quality. Among the new pre-sale packages, Benicio Del Toro and Cameron Diaz's crime-drama 'Reenactment', Daisy Edgar-Jones' 'Bad Bridgets', and the star-studded 'My Darling California' with Jessica Chastain and Chris Pine, are generating buzz.
Several projects have added notable cast members, including Gerard Butler's 'Empire City' and Black Bear's 'Kockroach'. Horror fans can also look forward to a selection of spine-chilling titles. The most talked-about indie project, however, is the recently revealed Tom Ford movie, which is not part of the AFM but is expected to find a studio home eventually.
A Mixed Bag of Projects and Market Realities
One seasoned international seller offered a nuanced perspective, "The market has potential, but we'll see if the buying appetite matches the industry's ambition. This year's projects seem more realistic and of better quality." A look back at past AFM 'hot lists' reveals a low hit rate, with many projects never materializing or underperforming at the box office.
New Buyers and Market Challenges
The entry of new domestic buyers like Black Bear and Row K is a positive development. However, the recent poor performances of high-profile adult-oriented films, such as 'The Smashing Machine' and Sydney Sweeney's 'Christy', highlight the market's unpredictability. A veteran international buyer noted, "There's a lack of substantial independent propositions. Production budgets are soaring, and the market isn't always supportive. We're searching for that rare gem among a sea of $10-15 million films."
The Shifting Landscape of Indie Distribution
For independent theatrical distributors, the challenges are multifaceted. At film festivals and markets, closing deals without a pay-one deal or streaming partner is increasingly difficult. While partners like Hulu, HBO Max, and Starz remain options, their spending caps have tightened. Fortunately, some distributors have SVOD deals, like Sony Pictures Classics with Netflix and Searchlight with Hulu, giving them a competitive edge.
One seller's insight sums up the current state of affairs: "The studios have been largely absent, except for specialty divisions. Netflix has slowed down, while Amazon remains active. Apple's approach is selective, and they only pursue the most attractive packages."
The AFM's return to Los Angeles has reignited enthusiasm, but the industry's challenges persist, especially in the domestic theatrical market. As the event unfolds, the question remains: will the market live up to its potential, or will it be a case of searching for that elusive needle in a haystack?
